HVAC Costs (2026)
AC, furnace, and heat-pump replacement costs by city — the national average adjusted to your local labor, climate, and permit rules.
Nationally, furnace replacement averages $5,500, and heat pump installation averages $6,500, and AC installation averages $7,500 — but a national average is the wrong number to budget with. The same AC installation costs about $8,670 in San Francisco, CA and $6,440 in McAllen, TX, a 35% difference for identical work driven by local labor rates, code requirements, and climate. Every price here starts from a researched national base and is adjusted with the federal government's own regional price data for your metro, across 100 US markets.
HVAC costs at a glance
National averages before local adjustment. Year-over-year change is anchored to the BLS Producer Price Index for the materials and equipment in each project.
| Project | National average | Typical range | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Installation | $7,500 | $5,000 – $12,500 | ▲ up 4.9% |
| Furnace Replacement | $5,500 | $3,800 – $10,000 | ▲ up 4.8% |
| Heat Pump | $6,500 | $4,500 – $13,000 | ▲ up 5.5% |
What drives hvac costs
Sizing comes first, and it should come from a Manual J load calculation rather than matching whatever was there before — an oversized system short-cycles, costs more upfront, and dehumidifies poorly. Efficiency is the next lever: a high-SEER2 or high-AFUE unit costs more to buy and less to run, and whether that trade pays back depends on your climate and electricity price. Ductwork is the hidden variable; leaky or undersized ducts can force a partial redesign, and adding ducts to a house without them changes the project entirely. Heat pumps sometimes need an electrical panel upgrade. Equipment prices also rose through the A2L refrigerant transition, which is why HVAC has been among the faster-rising categories.
Where AC installation costs the most — and the least
Across the 100 metros we cover, using the same national base cost adjusted by each metro's BEA price factor.
| Most expensive | Avg. AC installation | Least expensive | Avg. AC installation |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco, CA | $8,670 | McAllen, TX | $6,440 |
| Miami, FL | $8,570 | Wichita, KS | $6,670 |
| Los Angeles, CA | $8,520 | Jackson, MS | $6,680 |
| New York, NY | $8,450 | Tulsa, OK | $6,690 |
| San Diego, CA | $8,390 | Little Rock, AR | $6,710 |
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Frequently asked questions
- How much does an HVAC project cost in 2026?
- It depends on the job. AC Installation averages $7,500 nationally ($5,000 – $12,500); Furnace Replacement averages $5,500 nationally ($3,800 – $10,000); Heat Pump averages $6,500 nationally ($4,500 – $13,000). Those are national figures — your city's price will differ, often by thousands.
- Why does AC installation cost more in some cities than others?
- Because labor rates, code requirements, permit fees, and climate differ by metro. We apply the BEA Regional Price Parity for your metro to a researched national base cost, so AC installation runs about $8,670 in San Francisco and $6,440 in McAllen. The work is the same; the local price level is not.
- Which cities are most and least expensive for AC installation?
- Of the 100 metros we track, San Francisco, CA is the most expensive at about $8,670, and McAllen, TX the least at about $6,440. The full city list is below.
- Are AC installation prices going up?
- Yes — AC installation is up roughly 4.9% year over year nationally, based on the BLS Producer Price Index for the relevant materials and equipment plus skilled-trade wage growth. Full trajectories are on our cost-trends page.
- How many quotes should I get?
- At least three written quotes from licensed local contractors, compared line by line rather than on the bottom-line number. Check what each includes — permits, disposal, cleanup, and warranty terms vary between bids and are where apparent bargains usually come from. Our figures are informational estimates to help you sanity-check those bids, not quotes.
Cost factors from the BEA Regional Price Parities; trade wages from BLS OEWS; trends from the BLS Producer Price Index. Full method on How We Estimate. Figures are informational estimates, not quotes.
